Wednesday, April 11, 2007

An Overview Of the Markets

Let's take a look at the 3-month chart for the major ETFs I track -- the SPY (S&P 500), QQQQ (NASDAQ 100), and IWN (Russell 2000).

With the SPY we have an upward trending move for the last 5 days, but on lower volume. In addition, notice how the last 5 days bars are pretty narrow, indicating the markets really didn't move that much. Also notice how the market stopped right at resistance, then moved over resistance but still stayed near the level of resistance. Also notice how volume for the last 5 days is lower than previous days. This is a lukewarm chart. While it is technically bullish because of its overall trajectory, the hesitation around resistance, weak bars and lower volume indicate traders are hesitant to strongly bid this market up.

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Most of the SPYs analysis applies to the QQQQs. However, the bars here are stronger -- there is more distance between opening and closing prices. This indicates traders are acting a bit more bullishly. However, because prices are still hovering around resistance, this still qualifies as a lukewarm chart.

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This is the weakest of the three charts, largely because the chart is consolidating below resistance. Anytime a chart does not move above resistance it indicates traders are for some reason hesitant to take the market higher.

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