Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Wednesday Commodity Round-Up

Last week, we looked at copper. This week, I'll be looking at gold to see what the pace of the recent sell-off is doing to the market.



On the longer chart (1-year) notice that uptrends are still intact, despite the current sell-off.


On the shorter chart, prices fell to the 50 day EMA, rose and fell back and are now meandering their way higher. The EMAs are in a bullish orientation and the A/D, CMF and MACD are all signaling a move higher.

However, I would wait on making a move until prices move above previous highs. Other commodities are dropping in price (or at least not moving meaningfully higher) and there is concern about a global slowdown in play. With commodities moving lower there is less inflationary pressure, implying lower gold demand. As such, I think the highest probability for gold is a sideways consolidation in either a triangle or rectangle pattern. I believe there is still enough concern regarding inflation to keep a floor under prices for now.