Thursday, June 2, 2011

ISM Gets Significant Whack

From the ISMLink
The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI registered 53.5 percent and indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 22nd consecutive month. This month's index, however, registered 6.9 percentage points below the April reading of 60.4 percent, and is the first reading below 60 percent for 2011, as well as the lowest PMI reported for the past 12 months. Slower growth in new orders and production are the primary contributors to this month's lower PMI reading. Manufacturing employment continues to show good momentum for the year, as the Employment Index registered 58.2 percent, which is 4.5 percentage points lower than the 62.7 percent reported in April. Manufacturers continue to experience significant cost pressures from commodities and other inputs."
Here's a chart from Bloomberg:


That's a big whack, an indicates the slowdown is real, confirmed, and pretty big.

The rest of the report is actually pretty good. 14 of 18 industries are expanding, and most of the "what participants are saying" focus on rising prices, indicating strong demand. The main problem with this report is the size of the drop in the macro number and its various components, which indicates a fairly strong, abrupt slowdown is occurring.