Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Wednesday Commodity Round-Up

Today, I want to take a look at copper, as this chart is giving me hope for the next few months.


First, note that from the beginning of February to roughly the end of June, copper was in a downward sloping pennant pattern, eventually finding support around the 200 day EMA -- the line the generally separates bull and bear markets. Since than, copper has rallied.


The above chart shows that copper prices jumped through resistance and from the 200 day EMA, quickly making strong gains over about a week of time. During this rally, prices printes some very strong bars on very impressive volume.


Since the, prices have consolidated sideways, using the 10 day EMA as technical support. Volume has dropped off, but we've not seen an accompanying drop in prices. The EMAs are becoming bullishly aligned.


The A/D line does not show an outflow, but the CMF is lower. Most importantly, the MACD has just given a sell signal.

This chart gives me a bit of hope, as copper is a good leading indicator. However, this is one of the only charts lately that shows any sign of anticipated economic expansion.