Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Morning Market

Despite yesterday's price action, the SPYs are still in a consolidation pattern with the daily chart giving us no real clues as to what direction the ultimate break will be in.


The 5-minute chart shows an overall, slightly downward motion for the last 20 days.  We see a pattern of lower highs and lower lows through last Tuesday with prices consolidating right above 121.5 for the last three days.  Yesterday, prices broke below this level in the AM and then consolidated their move for most of the remainder of the day before moving sharply lower at the close.


In contrast, we see the long-end of the Treasury market moving sharply higher over the last 5 days, with prices advancing in two waves.




In contrast to the SPYs, the TLTs daily chart shows a decent rally taking place, with the chart printing fairly strong bars along with a bullish EMA and MACD picture. 

So, in short, we're back to the situation of a few weeks ago; as stocks sell-off, the treasury market rises as it catches a safety bid.


This is the real winner of all the latest movement in the markets: the dollar.  After breaking through resistance, it has consolidated its gains, but not fallen sharply enough to fall below the EMAs -- all of which are rising.  Momentum is also positive.