- by New Deal democrat
Monthly data reported in the last week included a 5 month high in the Michigan consumer confidence index. Almost all of this was due to the present conditions sub-index, while expectations for the future, a component of the LEI, gained only slightly. Durable goods were up, but only due to transportation. New home sales were up. Existing home sales were down.
Let's start this week's look at the high frequency weekly indicators again by looking at the Oil choke collar:
Oil prices and usage
- Oil $104.70 down -$3.35 w/w
- Gas $3.68 up +0.04 w/w
- Usage 4 week average YoY up +3.1%
Interest rates and credit spreads
- 5.29% BAA corporate bonds down -0.12%
- 2.54% 10 year treasury bonds down -0.10%
- 2.75% credit spread between corporates and treasuries down -0.02%
Mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association:
- -2% w/w purchase applications
- +6% YoY purchase applications
- -1% w/w refinance applications
- YoY this week +8.5%
Real estate loans, from the FRB H8 report:
- +0.3% w/w
- +0.5% YoY
- +2.4% from its bottom
- +1.3% w/w
- +0.8% m/m
- +7.1% YoY Real M1
- +0.5% w/w
- +0.8% m/m
- +5.0% YoY Real M2
The American Staffing Association did not report an update to their Index this week.
Initial jobless claims
- 343,000 up +9,000
- 4 week average 345,250 down -750
- $137.4 B for the first 18 days of the month of July vs. $124.7 B last year, up +$12.7 B or +10.2%
- $147.4 B for the last 20 reporting days vs. $134.4 B last year, up +13.0 B or +9.7%
Railroad transport from the AAR
- -3200 carloads down -3.0% YoY
- +6100 carloads or +3.8% ex-coal
- +6900 or +2.8% intermodal units
- -1600 or -0.3% YoY total loads
- ICSC +1.4% w/w +2.1% YoY
- Johnson Redbook +3.3% YoY
- Gallup daily consumer spending 14 day average at $91 up $23 YoY
Bank lending rates
JoC ECRI Commodity prices
- up +0.89 to 123.77 w/w
- +5.70 YoY
Interest rates have subsided somewhat from their recent highs, and spreads are near 52 week lows. Other positives include bank rates, money supply, house prices, and commodities. Consumer spending is extremely positive as measured by Gallup, very positive as measured by Johnson Redbook, but only weakly positive as measured by the ICSC.
Neutrals to slight positives include real estate loans, jobless claims, withholding taxes paid, and shipping rates.
This week saw a respite in the recent negative turn in the long leading indicators of interest rates and mortgages, as well as a decline in the oil price spike. Short leading and coincident indicators remain positive.
Have a nice weekend.